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polydad
Okay, it's January first. It's also Shabbos, and I attach more importance to the latter than to the former, even if I didn't "make Shabbos" tonight. I don't have a household to lead, and I'm feeling achey, and I don't have a challah and I can't make it be worth the effort. Next week, Rockey, for sure!

The achey is from a combination of going flat on my face on the ice on Thursday and being out in the combination moderate-cold and high-wind that was the available weather this afternoon. I was on my bike on Thursday, found a patch of black ice, and was down too fast to even think about rolling. Net damage, a bruised right palm and bruised and scraped left forearm, and a very busy and panicky few seconds listening to a passing car doing with four wheels what I'd just done with two. It *did* continue on past without making intimate contact, so fine.

The cold was because Sam called an impromptu outdoor event, and it sounded like a good idea, so I went. Not nearly as good an idea as it sounded, but okay.

And so now I'm thinking what the world will be like in fifty years, and what I'd *like* it to be like in that time, and how to make set A more similar to set B.

What makes the prediction biz difficult are parabolas. Figuring linear progression rates is only slightly difficult and is what our brains evolved to do, but actual progress tends to develop along parabolas. And they interact and produce secondary effects. And not *all* of 'em, which is actually a *good* thing, or progress would be even faster and more chaotic than it already is.

To start with the values of Solarpunk, there's environmental sustainability and social justice. On the environmental front, we're pretty well screwed; I anticipate about 5C global warming within 50 years. Proximal effects of this are moderately predictable, and will include the deaths of most of the populations of Iraq and Iran that can't afford air conditioning. Remember this past August? Like that, only worse. *Lots* worse.

With prompt and effective action, we could keep that to about 1.5C. That's *still* bad, but not nearly *as* bad. A 100% flat ban on the use of fossil fuels by 2030 would be necessary for that, and probably not sufficient.

I should go into detail on what 5C and 1.5C warmer worlds are like to live in, but achey. Now what about social justice?

I think there will be more of it. No clue what form it'll take or where it'll come from, tho'. So let's make some up.

"Memecorps" is one idea I've had. They already exist; we just haven't recognized 'em as such yet. 'Jobs with Justice', one of the groups I volunteer with, is one of 'em. JwJ is incorporated, but around the concept of employment justice rather than around the concept of making a profit. I see 'em as having much broader applicability, however.

Running out of steam. Taking aches to bed; will continue here next chance I get.