PolyDad (polydad) wrote,

Getting derailed.

I went to a presentation on "Navigating the Oregon Labor Movement" last night, given by the AFL/CIO.

The many Union people I've been dealing with for the last half-dozen years mostly strike me as good, well-intentioned people who are trying to do all the right things for mostly-inaccurate reasons.

I am hesitant to try to point this out to them; when I've tried such things previously I got fired a couple of times for it. People do *not* like having their fundamental premises questioned, on the whole. (Even research scientists.)

Note that I say "mostly inaccurate", rather than "wrong." If I can concentrate long enough, I'll get back to that. I'm having a Trump-overload morning, and it's not 7am yet.

The Democratic party is what has me worried. Right now we're swimming in an orgy of being able to blame the Rethuglicans for everything, and I'm pretty sure this is going to lead to the oft-prophecied "Blue Wave" in November, if we can keep the Asshole-In-Chief from declaring martial law that long. I expect an overwhelming Democratic lead in the House, and a narrow one in the Senate.

And I don't think that will be good enough. Impeachment is an indictment, not a conviction. The Senate handles the actual trial, and it takes a 2/3 majority to remove someone from office. I think the Rethugs will stay on their current course of "win at all costs", and the Dems will not be able to assemble that 2/3 majority. So Trump will be "impeached", but not, finally, removed from office.

Even if he is, I don't think the Democrats will have the courage to go after everybody involved. Getting rid of Trump will then leave us with President Pence, which is arguably worse, as Pence is actually a reasonably skilled politician, if still an authoritarian shithead. It would be possible for the Democrats to impeach or convict everyone involved, which by the rules of succession would leave us with President Hatch, as he's the highest one up the totem pole who *hasn't* been making a career lately of waging war against his own country. Since he is also a reasonably competent politician, he would then make a lot of effort to stay on his best behavior, and the Dems would be in a position to overrule him to the extent that he doesn't.

Ocasio-Cortes and people like her give some hope that the Democratic Party is coming back from its neoliberal nightmare. "Neoliberal" is a polite term for "timid fascist." I don't think we'll have *enough* like her to get the Democratic Party to actually take constructive action. Yes, we'll get enough in the House to put at least the lead traitor on trial -- but probably not enough to similarly indict McConnell, Ryan, Pence, De Vos, etc. ad nauseum. Criminally indicting senators and representatives creates a precedent that's very bad for criminally involved senators and representatives, which regretfully at this point is almost certainly most of them. At a seat-of-the-pants guess, all of the Rethugs and about 3/4 of the Dumbocrats.

A thorough house-cleaning would leave us with about a dozen Senators, seventy or eighty Representatives, and about three justices left on the Supreme Court. I don't think the Dems are *interested* in doing anything that would leave so many of them unemployed and possibly behind bars.

So, what's the best reasonably feasible outcome? The House files impeachment charges starting in mid-November, with more charges following through December as they work their way through the pile. Ahh, I can't finish this. It may be time for me to contact my brother in New Zealand and ask about political refugee status there.
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