PolyDad (polydad) wrote,

Crystal Ball. Well, OK, marble.

So here’s my optimistic scenario for American politics over the next two years:

Next month, the Democrats win a resounding majority in the House of Representatives, and a skinny one in the Senate (51/49, 52-47-1, something like that). Impeachment is filed in December or January, but the Dumbocrats are unable to get a supermajority in the Senate to vote to convict. However, since they *do* have a *simple* majority, they are able to control the meeting rules and prevent the charges from being dropped. ‘19 and ‘20 are spent in a case of complete deadlock, no further damage being done while the Senate is engaged in the impeachment circus, and we don’t make much if any progress either. In the ‘20 election, there are more left-wing third-party radicals elected than ever before, the Dems gain a supermajority in both houses and Trump loses to whomever the Democrats choose to run, possibly Jeff Merkley.

Ideally, a wave of Rethug impeachments and indictments follow, including criminal charges against most of the departing Administration and a smattering of Senators, Representatives, and recently ex-same. In practice, probably not, the Dems are terrified of creating a precedent of jailing Congresscritters and we’re too busy trying to patch the damage to bill the perpetrators for restitution, so they go on to lead wealthy and contented retirements.

How badly wrong could I be, and where?

The Rethugs could succeed at blaming the Dumbos for the deadlock in 20, take back the Senate, and get another term for the Dumbnald. The American safety string (can’t call it a “net”) is completely dismantled, environmental regulation the same, a lot of poor people including myself die, and we go skating merrily on our way to a 4C global temperature rise, whereupon we get Hothouse Earth and everybody else follows us.

Same result if the Republicans retain control of both houses in 18, only quicker. I regard this one as highly unlikely.

The Dumbos fail to gain a majority in the Senate in ‘18. If the House votes to impeach, charges are dismissed handily, and whether charges are filed or not we get two more years of the Russian operative running the country. With Dem control of the House, we still get a couple of years of deadlock, but it becomes very difficult for the Rethugs to blame the Dumbos for it in 20. We get President Merkeley and a Dem majority in both houses in 20, tho’ still probably no supermajority in the Senate. There is limited repair of the damage, but not anything close to a complete recovery.

Abel could win the Green nomination and the Presidency in 20, with a solid Dem majority in the House and probably a skinny one in the Senate. I become White House chief of staff, there is a more substantial repair of the damage and the aforementioned but previously dismissed pursuit of the villains, and immediate and profound action to avoid the Hothouse, which may or may not be successful. Not bloody likely but fun to imagine.

Okay, play with it. What might follow from any of the above, and what scenarios *not* listed do you think possible?
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